So Christmas is over for another year. There were plenty of anecdotal stories of how much extra Christmas dinner cost this year: the meat, the wine, even the Christmas crackers – everything seemed to cost more.

But let’s forget the anecdotal and concentrate on the numbers, which suggest that fresh food inflation rose at a record rate during December. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), fresh food inflation hit 15% in December, up from 14.3% in November and the highest figure recorded since records began in 2005. Overall food inflation was 13.3% in December, said the BRC.

These are eye-watering figures. We all became used to high inflation last year, but while we can choose not to buy new clothes, not to go on holiday and even opt to turn the heating right down, we cannot choose not to eat.

So what is the outlook for the coming year? Will food inflation finally start to ease? Or will it remain stubbornly high even as other prices start to come down?

The signs are not immediately optimistic. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, has warned that this year looks like being difficult for consumers, as ‘inflation shows no immediate signs of waning’.

Ged Fuller, retail analyst and former senior buying manager at Asda, told Radio 4 that it was ‘all about feed, fertiliser and fuel – and all of last year they were going up’. He suggested that food prices will stay high at the beginning of the year – but may start to come down later.

We can only hope so. The problem right now is that there are so many external factors which are affecting the price of our food – and over which we have no control. The war in Ukraine has pushed up the price of energy: China’s rapid re-opening post-Covid will mean that demand for energy – and therefore the price – remains high.

In addition, of course, the Government’s energy support package for businesses is due to be reviewed: there’s no question that the support will be cut, with Helen Dickinson suggesting that retailers could collectively see their bills rise by £7.5bn.

So when will prices start to come down? Alan Blinder, professor of economics at Princeton, suggests that high inflation will not last for years. ‘Energy prices will level off and supply chain problems will dissipate,’ he says. ‘When that happens, inflation will fall as quickly and as drastically as it rose. We’ve seen it happen before.’

In the meantime, retailers will continue to offer discounts and special offers where they can. City AM recently predicted that shoppers will see ‘a tsunami of offers and discounts in 2023’.

What we almost certainly will see while prices stay high is a shift in shopping patterns: the discounters, such as Aldi and Lidl, are likely to continue picking up market share at the expense of retailers like Tesco and Sainsbury’s. For many consumers, loyalty will become a distant second to value.